The Valley Forecaster
Vallecito Lake forecast
Blended from several models, corrected to the lakeside station, and graded against it every day.
Blended from several models, corrected to the lakeside station, and graded against it every day.
Upper 80s through Sun. Dry through the week.
The bold line is the corrected blend; the shaded band is how far the models disagree. Drag across it — or focus it and use ← →.
Drag or use ← → · the band is model spread, the line is the corrected blend.
Bars share one temperature scale, so you can read the week at a glance. Tap any day for the model spread, the correction, and the record.
The latest radar frame over the San Juans (RainViewer). Loads when you scroll here to keep the page light.
Radar © RainViewer · base map © CARTO/OpenStreetMap · data NOAA/NWS.
The lake sits at about 7,665 ft; Big Bear Park (station BBRC2) is up at 10,341 ft, ≈2,700 ft higher toward the Weminuche. The difference between them is the gradient that flat forecasts miss.
Most apps read one model and smooth the terrain flat. We pull several — NWS, GFS, ECMWF, ICON — pin them to the lake's real elevation, and blend them, then correct toward the marina's lakeside station. That's why it can disagree with your phone.
Sources: NWS · GFS · ECMWF · ICON. · Ground truth: the lakeside marina station. See how we verify.