Vallecito Lake forecast
Blended from several models, corrected to the lakeside station, and graded against it every day.
Mid 60s through Fri, warming to the upper 60s by Wed. Dry through the week.
This morning’s read
Thursday, October 1 · posted 5:00 AM MT
10/01/26 5:45am: Morning, its Thursday. The woodpile's down to half and I should've stacked more last week.
Dry weather across the board today, which makes for an easy bus run. Durango and the Animas Valley (6,500') starting around 50 and climbing into the low 70s this afternoon. Bayfield and up the Pine (6,900') similar, upper 40s now and upper 60s by midday. Vallecito and the Florida (7,650') cooler overnight, mid 40s now, and should see mid 60s by this afternoon. The 501 and the 240 should be dry for the morning drive, and the districts decide by 6:30. Current road status is at https://www.cotrip.org/
The high Weminuche (10,500'+) sitting in the mid 30s overnight and warming into the low 50s today, with gusts 12-20mph up top this morning. The passes should stay dry through the day, Coal Bank, Molas and Red Mountain all forecast dry, and Wolf Creek the same. Check https://www.cotrip.org/ for closures and chain law.
High pressure's building in behind that system that finally cleared out, and the GFS, Euro, ICON and GEM all agree we're done with rain through Friday. Grand Junction's calling it quiet through the weekend with temperatures climbing 5-10 degrees above normal by Sunday. There's some noise in the models about possible showers late Sunday into Monday as moisture tries to work back in from the southwest, but that's still pretty tentative and a long way out.
Nice stretch of fall weather coming. Anybody getting a jump on firewood this weekend?
Up the Pine Weather. A forecast, not road status. Check COtrip before you drive, and the National Weather Service for warnings.
Hour by hour
Drag across the ridge — the sky is tonight and tomorrow, the mountain is the temperature.
- Now, Thu, Oct 1, 53 degrees, Partly Cloudy, 1 percent chance of rain
- 7 PM, Thu, Oct 1, 49 degrees, Mostly Cloudy, 1 percent chance of rain
- 8 PM, Thu, Oct 1, 46 degrees, Mostly Cloudy, 1 percent chance of rain
- 9 PM, Thu, Oct 1, 44 degrees, Mostly Cloudy
- 10 PM, Thu, Oct 1, 42 degrees, Partly Cloudy
- 11 PM, Thu, Oct 1, 42 degrees, Mostly Clear
- 12 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 43 degrees, Mostly Clear, 1 percent chance of rain
- 1 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 42 degrees, Clear
- 2 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 41 degrees, Clear
- 3 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 40 degrees, Clear
- 4 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 40 degrees, Mostly Clear
- 5 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 39 degrees, Mostly Clear
- 6 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 38 degrees, Sunny
- 7 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 39 degrees, Sunny
- 8 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 41 degrees, Sunny
- 9 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 45 degrees, Sunny
- 10 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 50 degrees, Sunny
- 11 AM, Fri, Oct 2, 52 degrees, Sunny
- 12 PM, Fri, Oct 2, 53 degrees, Sunny
- 1 PM, Fri, Oct 2, 54 degrees, Sunny
- 2 PM, Fri, Oct 2, 56 degrees, Sunny
- 3 PM, Fri, Oct 2, 56 degrees, Sunny
- 4 PM, Fri, Oct 2, 56 degrees, Sunny
- 5 PM, Fri, Oct 2, 55 degrees, Sunny
See how much the models disagree — drag through the next 48 hours
The bold line is the corrected blend; the shaded band is how far the models disagree. Drag across it — or focus it and use .
Drag or use · the band is model spread, the line is the corrected blend.
Next seven days
Bars share one temperature scale, so you can read the week at a glance. Tap any day for the model spread, the correction, and the record.
ThuOct 1Partly cloudy65°43°4%
FriOct 2Sunny67°46°1%
SatOct 3Sunny69°47°
SunOct 4Sunny69°49°6%
MonOct 5Showers67°47°6%
TueOct 6Showers68°48°21%
WedOct 7Sunny69°48°8%
Precipitation radar
The latest radar frame over the San Juans (RainViewer). Loads when you scroll here to keep the page light.
Radar RainViewer · base map CARTO/OpenStreetMap · data NOAA/NWS.
Lake vs. the high country
The lake sits at about 7,665 ft; Big Bear Park (station BBRC2) is up at 10,341 ft, ≈2,700 ft higher toward the Weminuche. The difference between them is the gradient that flat forecasts miss.
Why it differs from your phone
Most apps read one model and smooth the terrain flat. We pull several — NWS, GFS, ECMWF, ICON — pin them to the lake's real elevation, and blend them, then correct toward the marina's lakeside station. That's why it can disagree with your phone.
Sources: NWS · GFS · ECMWF · ICON. Forecast updated Oct 1, 6:31 PM · Ground truth: the lakeside marina station. See how we verify.